don’t give the MAGAts breathing room on January 6thOkay, let’s talk about how guns aren’t magic, why physics matters, and why conspiracy theory wishcasting about the Trump assassination attempt really is a very bad thing to do.
To get the latter sorted first, there are a few key reasons why chasing conspiracy theory bullshit is always a bad idea, and is a particularly bad idea right now.
First:
someone around here has to hold on to reality. If you’ve got some evidence – and I don’t mean “tHeSe tWelVE pIxEls hEre” evidence, I mean real evidence – than I’m not talking to you. You aren’t the problem. But everyone I’ve seen pushing this is on Team I Want It To Be True So It Is, which includes both Team Too Damn Convenient
and Team Twelve Pixels.
(For the record, “Too damn convenient” absolutely can be a reason to look
for evidence, but it is
not evidence in and of itself. Similarly, the absence of evidence is not evidence.)
Second: This is MAGA thinking for the left. It really is. We don’t need a MAGA, we already have one at home. Please stop.
Third, and most important by far:
stop giving them a counter-conspiracy to balance January 6th.
Their big lie about the January 6th insurrection is that it was fake, that the media are lying about it, that the media are
overplaying it, in the face of all the visual and audio evidence in front of people’s eyes.
To the “low information voter” that I keep talking about, particularly white ones, arguing without real fucking good evidence that the shooting was a “set up” or a “con” looks exactly the same as MAGAts arguing about January 6th not being a riot, or an insurrection.It
balances the two in the eyes of the white low-info voter, and those are people we
absolutely have to reach. It makes
you look less credible. The “crazies” all have to stay on
their side, thank you – doubly so since actual reality, all by itself,
does in fact sound pretty crazy, even to me, who has seen it coming for a long, long time.
Don’t set a fleet of that up on
our side too.
Now, let’s talk about why the arguments going around don’t work.
The first is the “glass shards” argument, in particular the “teleprompter glass shards” version which was the first to gain traction, and is still coming up. I’ve already talked about this, but to sum:
the teleprompters were fully intact after the shooting and there are pictures taken immediately after, as in mere seconds after.
It’s not glass shards.
The second is, “those weren’t real bullets.” One dead and two others injured are a
fuck you very much to that argument, so shut the hell up right goddamn now.
The third is this image, which I will deface:
The idea being presented here is one of These Massive Things can’t touch any part of you without completely tearing that part up. Even that’s not true, but more importantly,
these aren’t what get fired from a gun.
These aren’t what get fired out the muzzle of
any gun!
(Well, other than a Portal turret, but Portal’s a videogame, and that was a bit. So stick with me here.)
The only part that’s actually fired is the little bit at the end. The
much smaller tip. That’s the actual bullet. The image above shows three
rounds, which, to be fair, are often called “bullets” in shorthand. But they’re made of multiple parts, only the smallest of which is the actual bullet.
The big part is called a cartridge, and it’s filled with the second biggest part, the gunpowder packing.
In this image, we have an AR-15 being fired. The bullet goes towards the targets. The cartridge –
the biggest part – is tossed away out the side. You can see it, and I’ve pointed an arrow at it in this photo:
Here’s the size of the bullet in a standard AR-15 round. It’s a .223, which is to say .223 inches, which is to say, less than 1/4″ wide, and something like an inch long, depending.
Here that is with a ruler and two common small pens for comparison. One pen is a Sharpie Fine Point, the other is a Pilot G-2.
I knew the direction and general path of bullet travel as soon as I studied the video and listened to witness descriptions in the first hour or so after the shooting. I knew it went parallel alongside the length of his head, clipping his ear, just like the later photo confirmed. From the blood trails, I thought maybe it’d been even closer than it was, but I was within a couple centimetres of actual trajectory so I’m pretty happy with my analysis.
You see, I used to shoot, both archery and firearms. I was a gun club member, for a little while, and considered a pretty decent shot, particularly with a pistol. And I don’t expect people to know this stuff in general, which is why I’m explaining it here.
The damage caused by AR-15 rounds is due to the
speed of the projectile, not the
size. k=½mv2 – adding more kinetic energy – impact, effectively – to a bullet is far more easily done by adding
speed, not mass or size. (And there’s the promised physics.)
That speed is, ironically, one of the many reasons this kind of wound is very credible, even without the other photos. It cracked across the top of his ear and wasn’t slowed down by it much at all. It didn’t get diverted, it didn’t bounce around somehow on his ear like a superball. It kept on going right through that thin, thin tissue, leaving a wound behind.
And yes, it could’ve gone through his ear – not just grazing it – and still kept going.
The shooter got off one good but rushed shot, because he’d been discovered and had to shoot before he really wanted to, we know that now. Then he took a couple of not-so-good shots, and then some desperation shots before the Secret Service took care of him. I was confused by those later shots, at first – until I found out he’d been discovered before he could pick his actual best moment to fire.
You see – an AR-15 is a pretty high-precision rifle. It’s not a spray-and-pray like the old AK-47 that was the symbol of “scary military rifle” for such a long time. The old AK was way more focused on sending out as much lead as it could in a short period of time, and it used significantly larger rounds. It was a pretty bad rifle at range.
Now, I admit, to people who don’t know or want to know anything about firearms, they’re both military rifles so look kind of alike, much like a Tesla Cybertruck looks like kind of like a dumpster. And both rifles contain bullets,
much like a dumpster and a Cybertruck both contain garbage. But they are still very different, and in ways that matter.
The biggest difference for our purposes here is accuracy. At the shooter’s range,in the hands of someone reasonably well trained, an AR-15 is a pretty accurate rifle. Not amazing, not like some of those guns the Finnish Army snipers carry around, but it’s good. I don’t have direct experience with it, but I know the type.
The point is: that was a tremendously makable shot.
Trump was out there the day after saying if he hadn’t turned his head at the last minute, he’d’ve been killed.
By the time that was reported, I had already come to that same conclusion.
And that’s because, again, I do know a little about shooting. I’m not an expert, I’m just someone who has shot a reasonable amount, been in a gun club, and has read up further for the purposes of writing my stories. (Mostly novels, but not just.) I’m no expert markswoman, but when in practice I’m not bad, and I did do decently well in archery in undergraduate, at the club level.
And based upon my experience, and my knowledge, I counted back in the video from the actual injury – where Trump reacts first, as he starts to grab his ear – to the point in time where the actual decision would’ve been made by the shooter to pull the trigger. The no/no-go moment. And I looked carefully where Trump’s head was,
then, and where I knew the bullet had to have travelled.
To the best of my admittedly entirely amateur ability to tell, that shot was aimed right at the back of his skull. A little above where you want to aim if you want to drop someone like a sack of potatoes, but not far off. Close enough. It probably would’ve got the job done.
Now…
Tell me again that this was a fake. Tell me it was a kayfabe.
Or better yet, just fuckin’ keep it to yourself.
109 days remain.
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are we really going to start falling for least-effort weakest-sauce disinfo now?
I’m asking centrists, liberals, and the left. Fash and fash-adjacent, I know that’s your speciality, this one isn’t for you – though if you are reading, carry on, because I do have an important warning flag of disinformation to hand out, and even you need to care.
So. What even is the point of the “teleprompter glass shards” bullshit? The bullshit idea that Trump’s injury came from glass shards, specifically from his teleprompters, I mean? That one.
There’s also a variant that it’s “glass shards” from somewhere else, and not specifically the teleprompter, but the teleprompter one is the dominant variant that I’ve seen.
Thing is: it doesn’t fucking matter! Without the bullets, there’s no glass shards! The bullets are the proximate cause either way – tho’ I gotta say, this sure as fuck doesn’t look like a “glass shard” to me.
Why does it important to some people that it’s a “glass shard”? Why is this a thing I had to get into fights with people all Sunday? It’s clearly super-attractive to some people, and that’s important. Why?
But more importantly, what do you think you’re doing?! Particularly the teleprompter people! Because conspiracy theory bullshit looks no better on us than it looks on them!
It makes you look, in fact, like a credulous fool.
So apparently I gotta ask: are we really going to start falling for the absolute stupidest, dumbest-ass trivially-disprovable bullshit-grade disinfo now? Really? Stuff you could absolutely positively check yourself in 30 seconds and get a rock-solid disproof? Is that what we’re going to do now?
Because holy shit if that’s what we’re going to do now, then we really are fucked, because I really, really feel like this is somebody testing their centrist/liberal- and left-wing disinfo network to see how well it does, and where they can take you and how easily. And the first answer is bullshitdown, and the second answer appears to be trivially.
So here is RULE NUMBER ONE on “spotting disinformation.” At least, rule number one as I see it.
TO WIT:
If there is a general consensus on a news item, but there is an outlier that is telling you something you find attractive and something you really want to be true, then you need to back the hell off, because while it might be true, it’s way more likely bait.
This doesn’t mean the consensus is always right. To repeat myself, I am not saying the consensus coverage on new news is always right. That is something I am not saying. NOT. I repeat again, NOT saying that.
(And yeah, I have to repeat myself that many times on something like this, because that’s what it seems to take. That, too, I find infuriating.)
In particular, it’s generally not true in science, where the consensus early reporting on new science worth making headlines is generally wrong. Particularly for anything involving characteristics of “suspect classes,” like Black people, Indigenous people, and any and every kind of queer person in the world.
(Consider the ‘gay gene’ reporting in the 1990s, with the study authors actually in the background at their presentation saying ‘DO NOT REPORT THIS AS A GAY GENE, that’s not what this is’ followed immediately by a cut to a CNN reporter saying to camera, “This discovery of a ‘gay gene’…”)
But the vast majority of the time, if the outlier report is something you really want to hear, you need to treat it as if it’s radioactive plague hornets until you are goddamn well sure it’s correct. Or at least viable. Something with some real and solid support under it – and not just something tailored to grab you and people like you.
Because that shiny, shiny candy bite is exactly how disinformation and propaganda specialists hook you in. By offering a sweet, sweet lie you really want to be true.
That is rule one. If it’s that an outlier and that kind of attractive, it’s probably bait.
So.
If you’re reading this, and you’d decided “glass shard” happened, and in particular if it was teleprompter glass, I present to you here, from the original shooting video, the two teleprompters, both visible and apparently fully intact – and certainly not in “shards” – several seconds AFTER Trump’s injury.
That’s how easily this one’s disproved. 30 seconds of looking at a video.
Also, if that’s not enough, here’s a picture of the bullet whizzing past Trump’s head.
And yet so many people on Facebook in particular – for whatever reason, I don’t know why – are defending “glass shard” to an inch of their life. Some even after seeing the teleprompter picture. Because somehow, that’s what they want to believe – so they’re damned well going to.
And it’s bullshit. And also, how we got MAGA.
…
Hopping christ on a pogostick, folks, go sleep it off. And do better tomorrow, now that you have rule one. I know, a lot of you aren’t used to having to do this, aren’t used to hostile and disinformation-friendly press, aren’t used to having to pick out reality from the lies in this kind of way, and I’m sorry, but … you have to get better at it now. Like, right now.
I beg you. Learn to do better.
And don’t take bait.
112 days remain.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/project-2025-tax-trump-economy-heritage-foundation-how-it-works/
Project 2025 would overhaul the U.S. tax system. Here's how it could impact you.
Aimee Picchi (CBS News)