Many people whom I listen to, and read from, have eschewed the idea that the #USA can slip into autocracy, but also many I get news content from were warning early on that it definitely can—and is—happening here.
The "jury" is out and the facts are in. We had a near miss, and it is not over. The woefully, dangerously, well-armed, misguided people who were effectively footsoldiers in this attempt did not see the errors of their ways and recant their thinking. They saw it as a tactic to growing their movement and are planning the next stages.
That is a convincing argument, but it's one that has hindsight as its aid. Suppose the historian had to decide what the cohesive ideology was as they were evaluating the aggregated news of the time as they first saw it instead of evaluating it many years after it happened.
Well, #MashaGessen has done something similar to that. I felt his words deeply when he said it and talked about what was seen in diaries and journals of the day as #Germany was becoming its worst. Those diaries match our perception of current events.
Compare the following two episodes of the #Throughline #Podcast. The first is an interview with a Historian specializing in inter-war Germany named Timothy Snyder. The second is with a Russian-American journalist, author, translator, and activist named Masha Gessen.
note Timothy's words at the 26:00 time mark
note Masha's words at the 15:00 time mark
Perhaps it's not obvious that I'm not denigrating Timothy's work based on his interview, so I'll specify that I liked what he said. I'm only picking at a little bit of it because Masha's thinking is superior about that point.
It's comparable to a lead section in Jordan Ellenberg’s wonderful book, “How Not To Be Wrong,” when he wrote about where to armor warplanes based on the bullet holes.
Military officers had gathered and studied bullet holes in the aircraft that returned from missions. One early thought was that the planes should have more armor where they had been hit the most— fuselage, fuel system, the rest of the plane— but not on the engines, which had the smallest number of bullet holes per square foot.
Abraham Wald, a leading mathematician, disagreed. Working with the SRG (Statistics Research Group) in Manhattan, he asked an odd question: Where were the missing bullet holes— the ones that would be all over the engine if bullets were equally distributed?
They were on the missing planes, the ones that had been shot down. So the vulnerable place wasn’t where all the bullet holes were on the returning planes. It was where the bullet holes were on the planes that didn’t return.
Restricting your measurements to a final sample, excluding part of the sample that didn’t survive, creates what statisticians call “survivor bias.” It can cause you to come to conclusions that are entirely wrong.
The commonality is using incomplete evidence and hindsight to determine truth/reality. Masha added more evidence.
Mark Blyth is stumped. He’s the people’s economist who speaks the people’s language through his thick working-class Scottish accent. He hasn’t gone silent in the pandemic ruins of our prosperity. He’s as noisy as ever, ...
I do a lot of content consumption on the #Twitter, and only rarely reshare it in the #Fediverse, but this one I am. Seth Abramson, the well-known author, dropped a hell of a thread on Twitter yesterday. I read it this morning. He puts together the longer story of International #Corruption but centered on one of the #USA's biggest mistakes in history, Donald #Trump. November he knew about the pandemic and for "thirty pieces of silver" he sold out the world's people to get dirt on the #Biden kid to help his reelection.
Thread by @SethAbramson: (THREAD) This thread summarizes the major-media investigative reporting on the TRUMP-CHINA SCANDAL, a bribery scandal Trump's hunt for dirt on Joe Biden in China, his debts to the Chinese government, and his decision to ignore…
August 19, 2019Play EpisodeBy the time the final dice were thrown, Trump's Atlantic City casino operations had gone bankrupt six times. Despite that, Trump won the long game.You can follow Spectacular Failures on Twitter and Facebook using @failureshow. We're @failure_show on Instagram. Follow Lauren Ober on Twitter and Instagram at @obera...
Yes #WTF! The #Trump has decided to eliminate the #Right to #Privacy in the #USA. I can see the short-sightedness of his base of support being in favor of this because they think if it happens they will be in power forever.
So this is what #America's #GOP types have decided they wanted to defend. #Politics are heading to a new low in this world and that's a really low bar. It's like they all read the script for the #Tabooshow and thought, 'Remember the good old days of the Dutch East India company?' #Republican's seem to have no soul.
What's this #taboo reference? After watching #MeetThePress this morning it was pretty obvious that they just want to throw the #racist accusation out over and over again instead of talking about the economy, Iran, or #patriotism.
Sounds like classic #FalseFlag #Bullshit here. I'm supposed to believe an oil exporter doesn't know how to exploit the weak spots on an oil tanker? The "Attack" caused minor damage that merely needs some time in a port to fix it. #Iran #War #Trump #Bolton
"This has led to a #Fed that is far more concerned about keeping down inflation (a concern of #bankers) than the full #employment portion of its mandate."
Suppose you #borrow $50,000 in a year that you were paid $40,000/year. Inflation and mandated COLA pay raises makes your earnings go to $60,000/year. You aren't richer because your milk, bread, gas, and other things are more expensive too, but your loan is still $50,000 on their books. The bank feels like they lost $20,000.#Trump #voters