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Michael Rupp friendica

A Capitalism Market Pricing Fail

This post is appropriate for tumultuous times like the ones we are in now. People schooled in # are well aware of the way a # is supposed to automatically make sure the people who need goods & services the most during a shortage in the # will get them because they are willing to pay more because their needs are higher.

I had a minor epiphany today that saw that as the # that it is. It always rang hollow for me, but when I learned it I was part of the culture that wants to believe it. (side note: Now, I sincerely believe that # is mere # #, although the # types and other # based # seem to make it into "old-school" feudalism)

In a rare instance, I—a non-religious person—am going to quote the # # to help bring home my point. (#)

For they have put in a little of the money they had no need for. She is very poor and has put in all she had. She has put in what she needed for her own living.

Our current free-market pricing, aka Invisible Hand Of The Market, is the type of magical thinking we expect from theology, so why do we think it's okay for economics; a science? I think it's because it's presented in the form of a false dichotomy in the first place. The offered alternative is fixed pricing. The logical conclusion is people overbuy because of their inexorable human fear of running out and hoarding happens as a result; obviously an inefficient market condition. # had a case of this early in the # crisis where we went insane for toilet paper.

Some retail vendors dealt with the potential stock-outage dilemma by limiting the number a person could purchase on a single visit; # goods. Despite this limitation being easily hacked by nefariously thinking people, it worked in general. All we needed was a nudge that effectively put across the message, "don't be an asshole." It's hard to pull off rationing in a population of cultural capitalists who, "don't like the guvement tellin' me wut ta do."

This next thought experiment is almost impossible to do in theory, but I'm putting it into writing anyway because it points us towards better thinking. Suppose that under normal market conditions we could statistically determine the "regular" pricing for a good or service. That is a feasible activity that is done by many people in many places all the time. Now add to that the idea that we could also know either the true # and/or # of people at all times. And the final element is to make the market price a linear formula of surge-pricing = regular pricing + (x percent of net-worth or annual income). This has the property of egalitarianism built into the pricing.

In our current system of capitalism, no wealthy person would ever weigh the surge-pricing of goods or services and think, "maybe I should wait." A majority of people in the middle class will be forced to think about it immediately, then others will be forced to overtime. People in poverty don't have the luxury of thinking it over, they have to do without or die. This is also obviously an inefficient market condition, except that people with power never viscerally feel its effects. Wealthy people only care about problems that hurt them personally.

-QED

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Stock Picking Discussion reshared this.

The stock market is not the economy, exhibit 3,443.62

This new episode of the Marketplace show called Make Me Smart with Kai & Molly is great at explaining the #Economics behind the #Decoupling of the #StockMarket in the #USA and the #Economy. Although the #Stock #Market has never been the Economy in the same way that the bread isn't part of the sandwich.

They get to the point in the first interview so you can be done listening by the 15:00 minute time mark

P.S. tagging ! into this.

How to Lie with Statistics (in this case Police statistics)

This is a good post for the ! forum because every #Investment decision is based in #Statistics for the purpose of limiting #Risk. Said another way, finding facts to predict outcomes, or at least to predict what can't happen. However, as was made famous by this quote, …

There are three kinds of lies:
lies, damned lies and statistics.
…, statistics are at least a double-edged sword.

Linked at the bottom is a famous book that teaches people how to see the lies that duplicitous people will tell through statistics. The embedded podcast here is a recent episode of #TheGist by #MikePesca where during the interview portion (time 6:00 to 22:00), we hear the guest indicate a lot of the perversions of the data which helped the new GobbelsWilliam Barr—make his recent statements that there isn't #InstitutionalRacism.
Splashing Down on a Mountain of Racism

Barr isn't lying through his teeth, he's lying through other people's statistics. Please do whatever you can to educate yourself about statistics. It will help you to see the lies promoters of securities will tell. (skip to 8:25)
Attorney General Barr Denies Claims Of Political Interference In DOJ

And if you really want to take a deep dive on #American #PoliceBrutality #History, you need to point your browser to Behind the Police (by the makers of Behind the Bastards)

Code Switch | Why Now, White People?

Okay, this one is going into ! but I don't think it's obvious as to why, so I will explain.

During the course of the show, they have a very wise discussion of the possible reasons so many #WhitePeople joined #BlackPeople in the #BlackLivesMatter protests. It's all sound reasoning. It's not what my point it though, but the details they discuss will be worth memorizing for your future.

Social Unrest is one of the most #powerful #indicators of how the real #economy is doing and also how well the current #Politics, #Laws & #Regulations are serving the people the #government is supposed to represent. It takes a lot for people to get off their asses and #protest in #hostile #environments. That's a big indicator of a shit economy and/or shit politics. So the #financial #news may tell you one thing, but the #social #unrest tells you the truth. The #Stock #Market has a generally repeating set of patterns after presidential elections, and I urge you to try doing some charting with the S&P500 to see what things look like and segregate your results by the type of leaders running and who won. They tell a story you should know.

What they discuss in the podcast will add to your personal set of market predictors. Leading indicators like this are valuable.

Corruption - Society's Cancer | It has many forms

#Police #Brutality against a #countries #citizens is a #corruption, and for this post, I'm using the #USA in my examples, but it's a universal problem.

To address the "#WTF does this have to do with 'Stock Picking' since it's posted there (here)?", I'll first say corruption in a #social #system for any set of collective living things is the equivalent of #friction or #drag in #Physics; energy is dissipated in a way that it cannot be recovered. This means value is lost ubiquitously within society in a way that could be avoided where loss due to depreciation and wear of capital goods cannot be avoided. That loss damages the overall #Economy, and more starkly effects the subsystem of all things directly connected to the specific acts of corruption.

Society can collectively address that corruption if it is informed of it and if it affects all the individuals' value systems enough to motivate them to demand change.

The policing systems in the #UnitedStates do not even need to be #Mindfully aware that they are corrupt for it to be de facto corruption. The mindset of the systems pawns/soldiers wearing blue and black shirts—based on training and direction of commanding officers and their manuals—are jamming the court system and the prison system with people of meager means for the benefit of for-profit prison systems, and the excessive profit handed to the few is being taken from all of us in a very costly way. The benefit to society locally—if those put into the system were even really guilty of something—is negligible compared to the cost we all bear collectively when we unknowingly support the corruption in the system. Books can be written about the details of the human value lost to our society when a poor person goes to jail for smoking #Marijuana or making a #FurtiveMovement. Think of the change in your personal economic burden if you went from just looking out for yourself, to taking care of a parent who suddenly had a stroke and is now in an immobile state. That example is more #economically pronounced than when your pot-dealer goes to jail, but it's only a matter of scale in difference. The big difference in that metaphor is that your parent would have to have been medically forced into the stroke by their doctor, and it's not really your parent, but the hospital decided you had to financially take care of them, and the hospital will bill you annually for their services through your taxes so you can't see that line item.

The good news is there is a way to remove an #Insidious portion of the #Mindlessly administered corruption of #PoliceBrutality and it's proven effective. You may know the promoter of this method by his sky-blue vest appearing at demonstrations and rallies like #BlackLivesMatter. He displays a type of #Genius that almost hints of Asperger's Spectrum; he's DeRay Mckesson.

I heard him speaking yesterday on the Pod Save America #Podcast at about halfway through the show (skip to 44:35 and he's done by 55:40).

I heard him plug the webpage of his successful method, "Police Use Of Force Project", so I attached it below.
All it is is to alter the policies inside the existing bureaucracies for the use of force. Just 8 common-sense policy changes have reduced 72% of #Manslaughters / #Murders by the Police on our #Citizens.

So to bring this all back home, you can either think about who wins from the corruption and invest in that, think about who loses from the corruption and short-sell that, or start fighting the corruption and we all win together.
...or...
Do any combination of those including all of them.
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#Bias #Knowledge #Media #SensationalNews #Disinformation #LoveThyNeighbor #PeacfulProtest #CivilUnrest #SocialContract #Vote #VotingMatters #CivicDuty

Movie Reccomendations

I don't know how long it was sitting in my #Netflix queue waiting to be watched, but The China Hustle is really on! It's a #GiveTheGameAway type documentary. It shows us that the King has no clothes and pulls away the curtain showing the Wizard of Oz is a meager humbug.

#StockMarket #Finance #Scam #InsiderTrading #ChinaMarket #ShellGame #PumpAndDump #BaitAndSwitch #Scandal #RipOff #Swindle #JustUs

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The Gist with Mike Pesca

slate.com/podcasts/the-gist
Part of "The Slate Group LLC"

#TheGist

Classification: Partisan - #Mainstream | Journalisic Quality - #Complex

Scope: #UnitedStates

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Michael Rupp friendica
I've been playing #TheGist for a long time now, and I knew of the quality of Mike Pesca's work form long before this by way of his interludes of sports reporting in the regular news. He is amazingly artful with words and he uses the obscure words in context so well that you need not get your dictionary out to know what he is saying.

It's not his artful command of the English language that gets me though, it's his unbiased open-mindedness to become wrong or to not accept what the majority reporting is on its face. He digs deeper in his work and often makes me think I'm wrong about my positions. I always feel less extreme when I listen to The Gist.

WTF is the DOW Index?

So this is for the ! #Forum because as it turns out a lot of people who might want to invest don't know what those news-making indexes are or why they should or should not matter.

The attached article below is a link to a Google Spreadsheet document that calculates the Dow Jones Industrial Average live. You can click around in the cells to see how it's calculating to come up with the number talked about on the news. Their's lots to say about this one, so I'm going to thread comments below to explain more...
Michael Rupp friendica
#BTW today's #Marketplace podcast is related...
The stock market is not the economy … so what is it?

Embedded player local to this post

Michael Rupp friendica
After much procrastination, here is the S&P500 version of that linked DJIA Google Spreadsheet attached to the initial post:
The main difference is the DJIA is a badly planned average of prices and this is a weighted average where the size of the company relative to the other companies sizes will change its importance. That makes sense because if a $4-million company changed its price by 5% and a$3-billion company changed its price by 5% we wouldn't think they are equal with respect to the health of the overall stock market.

Why are the NYSE and private companies fighting over two-millionths of a second?

From the #Marketplace #Podcast I heard a real gem for the ! #Forum. I forget the details of the whole backstory, but what I remember is this...

#WallStreet started wholesale hiring #Computer #Scientist's shortly after the #Y2K changeover; we were at a severe pay discount at that time. It was around 2002 that the hiring wave was more of an open secret. The finance people that were writing their checks didn't give them their due respect when they should have. This made an opening for the #Geeks to steal their bully #Jocks lunches. The CS people front ran the market based on AI automated trading and a shorter wire than the finance jocks had.

To more deeply understand the wire advantage an ordinary 2GHz speed processor (old and slow now), makes well over 2 billion calculations per second, and there are 1 million microseconds per second, and electricity travels at the speed of light, so in the same time data travels through six-inches of wire that 2GHz processor finished doing a calculation. The longer the difference between the connection to the data is, the more time a computer has to react to a change in the same data. Let's just say you have the new Intel 9 in a machine working for you today. That's 18 cores each doing 3 billion calculations per second. That's also way over 108,000 calculations in two-millionths of a second. And that's why the NYSE is making the news today.

This skimming by the geeks has gone on for a long time now, maybe a decade. Yesterday's story by Kai Ryssdal and Sabri Ben-Achour linked below is a type of "The Empire Strikes Back" by the finance guys.

It's short and worth your time to listen, BUT!!! I do not in any way condone this type of hyperspeed trading, it's bad for the market, bad for the environment and bad for other investors! The systems I am developing are designed to give you the mathematical minimum volatility in your investments while doing reasonable buy-and-hold ownership, in an ideal set of proportions, while still enjoying healthy returns tuned in by your risk tolerance.

WTF is the DOW Index?

So this is for the ! #Forum because as it turns out a lot of people who might want to invest don't know what those news-making indexes are or why they should or should not matter.

The attached article below is a link to a Google Spreadsheet document that calculates the Dow Jones Industrial Average live. You can click around in the cells to see how it's calculating to come up with the number talked about on the news. Their's lots to say about this one, so I'm going to thread comments below to explain more...

Name of the show / newspaper column / orginazation

[url=http://ShowFQDN.TLD/]ShowFQDN.TLD[/url]
Part of "[url=https://ParentOrgFQDN.TLD/]Parent Org Description[/url]"

[nobb]#[/nobb]NameOfTheShow/NewspaperColumn/Orginazation

[b]Scope:[/b] [nobb]#[/nobb]SomeCountry

[nobb]![/nobb]news_sources[nobb]@[/nobb]social.outsourcedmath.com
This entry was edited (3 years ago)

Visionair.nl

visionair.nl

#visionair

Classification: Partisan - #SkewsLiberal | Journalistic Quality - #Analytical

classification details
This entry was edited (4 years ago)
Now that's funny right there

I found that pic connected to their The war that you do not see on the NOS news post.

I was searching duck-duck-go for images of "News Sources" to come up with an icon idea for this forum and that image caught my eye. I thought I was going to steal it so I wanted to attribute it to them and the article made me like them, especially this image:

P.S. this is intended as an #exemplar post. I literally didn't know that news source existed before making this community forum account. Also, I won't be posting anymore news sources. It's up to the community members to post theirs and be prepared to engage in dialogue to defend them.

Michael Rupp friendica (via ActivityPub)