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Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted

We projected mortality for 2024 to include two waves of Covid-19, both lower than 2023, and all other mortality to be an improvement on 2023.

In the year to August 2024, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels of deaths than predicted.

Other deaths from respiratory illnesses have also been worse than expected, with all other mortality in line with predictions to date.

Covid-19 continues to be a significant new source of mortality in the Australian population, with no signs that it is replacing deaths from other causes, leading to overall deaths being 2%, or more than 2,000 deaths higher than expected in the eight months to August 2024.

[...]

COVID-19 mortality in 2024 has followed the basic pattern that we predicted, albeit with slightly different timing. The wave that hit in late 2023 abated early in the year, and a new wave arrived in the middle of the year before it too abated. However, deaths from COVID-19 have been much higher than predicted.

Between the late-2023 and mid-2024 waves, COVID-19 mortality continued at a higher level than we anticipated. The mid-2024 wave, which commenced in May, rose more sharply and reached a higher level than we predicted. The peak of that wave was higher than the previous one, contrary to our prediction that peaks will be lower from wave to wave. In fact, the mid-2024 wave was similar in height to the mid-2023 wave.

Surveillance of COVID-19 PCR tests in New South Wales and Victoria shows an increase in positive results commencing in late October, consistent with the timing of the predicted late-2024 wave.

COVID-19 is a new disease, and its mortality impact is difficult to predict. The first eight months of 2024 have proven to be materially worse than we anticipated, in terms of both the peak mortality of each wave and the underlying mortality between waves.

Via Violet Blue's Pandemic Roundup: December 19, 2024

#caturday #cats #cat stolen from #Bluesky

#caturday #cats #cat stolen from #Bluesky

https://www.mmacycles.com/free-weekly-forecast/mma-free-weekly-column-for-the-week-beginning-december-23-2024/
#astrology
..."It’s chaos time. It’s Jupiter in Gemini square Saturn in Pisces. It’s Mars retrograde. Next week, it will be Venus square Uranus. As expected, this holiday season is not likely to be boring. So, let’s try to be merry and embrace the excitement of … the unexpected and the chaos and entertainment that comes with it.
...
It was four years ago, on the winter solstice of December 20-21, 2020, that the “New Aira” began with the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn at 0° Aquarius. For the next nine of ten occurrences, this 20-year synodic cycle will occur in air signs, which hasn’t happened since the last air epoch began some 800+ years ago. That was around the time of the creation of the Magna Carta, which basically proclaimed that rulers were not above the law. Everyone, even kings and queens, must be held accountable to the law, as is everyone else. The Magna Carta was the inspiration behind the creation of the United States Constitution. Jupiter and Saturn specifically refer to rules and laws in mundane astrology.

The element sign of the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction changes approximately every 200 years, and there are four elements. We have left the earth element (central government controls, status based on material wealth) as of December 2020, after approximately 200 years. We are now in the air element for the next 200 years, highlighting values and status based on intellect and creativity.
...
the winter solstice of 2020 was historic because it started the “New Aira,” a term coined by MMTA graduate and analyst Kat Powell. And now, four years later, it meets its first quarter cycle challenge, a time when the visions conceived during the conjunction symbolically go through a painful “birthing” process. Laws of the land and policies of large governmental entities are likely to be tested and challenged. Jupiter has a tendency to desire to do “too much” to be too grand and too large. Saturn has a tendency to do too little and to be too worried that it won’t have or do enough. The solution is the middle path, the path of moderation and compromise, although the square can be reluctant to compromise (which is why you have courts to settle these matters). To not be moderate and measured in one’s actions during this square (August 2024-June 2025) is a recipe for difficulties (trying to do too much too fast, or too little and too slowly).
...
Jupiter is still in the volatile sign of Gemini into June 2025. The first half of 2025 is likely to be volatile. In many ways, I suspect markets may reflect the personality of the newly returned U.S. President Donald Trump, who is a Gemini with his Sun conjunct Uranus and both in opposition to his Sagittarius Moon. He is the Jupiter part of the Jupiter/Saturn square. This can be a positive thing, or it can turn out to be difficult, but probably a combination of each,
...
We then find all the outer planets changing signs between November 19, 2024 (Pluto) and May through to September 2025 (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune). This hasn’t happened in 300 years and before that time, it was another 300 years. This also portends a period of great chaos and a changing of directions. Think of the next few months like a huge tide coming in—and then the riptide starts as the waves go back out. :...

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(https://www.syracuse.com/crime/2024/12/central-ny-judge-who-went-on-racially-offensive-tirade-at-high-school-graduation-party-has-resigned.html)